Well it’s a beautiful 65 degree day here in New Hampshire. Cinqo De Mayo is perhaps one of my favorite holidays of the year. I love Coronas, Tequila, Sombreros, Margaritas, and Spanish music of all sorts including Reggaeton, Salsa, etc, etc. In fact, I sometimes wish I had been born Spanish because the culture is extremely lively and has so much to offer. Not to mention it would be nice to be bilingual in English and Spanish because being fluent in both is on such high demand these days as we grow into a more and more multicultural nation that has an increasingly larger Hispanic population. Note to self: Try and teach myself Spanish in addition to Chinese, Japanese, and Hindi… I think I have my work cut out for me for the next 20 years… and here I am locked inside the library working on my last paper and studying for finals. I’ll be in the gym later as well. On to business.
Today is also the beginning of the run for the triple crown. I get a lot of emails and calls from friends that I know personally and from others who I know on fantasy sports message boards. I’ve managed to nail at least 1-2 winners a year from the three races for the past 3 years. How I do it, I have no idea other than I just analyze carefully and make my own judgment calls like everyone else. My best pick ever was picking Birdstone to upset Smarty Jones at the Belmont with 35-1 odds. My rule of thumb for that race was based on the fact that Zito is an excellent trainer, Birdstone was a young stretch runner, had done very well in the warm-ups, and the Belmont is a longer track, so I felt Smarty would finally tire, much to the dismay of one of my best friends from Philly who was legitimately pissed at me for a week afterwards. Unfortunately, I have devoted zero time this year to this year’s race with all the work I have pending graduation.
Quickly looking this year’s posts drawings over and who the trainers, riders, etc are… another general rule of thumb is you want to stay away from anyone beyond the 16th post and out because they either have to really push at the beginning to get to the front for the first turn or they fall back and have to really be capable of a great stretch run through the field towards the end. All in all, it’s fairly difficult to win from the outside.
Trainers that catch my eye are Barclay Tagg, Todd Pletcher, and John Shirreffs. Shirreffs and Tagg have had some extensive success in general and in the Derby. For some reason neither Baffert or Zito have horses in this year’s Derby. Riders that caught my eye are Prado, Smith, and Nakatani. Prado is a household name and is well known after last year’s Barbaro disaster (I had him picked for a full triple crown run). Smith is also a great rider and the combination of him, Shirreffs, and Tiago with 15-1 odds on the 15th post makes a very interesting combination and could be a great possibility for an outside win. Tiago is also apparently the half brother of Giacamo and likes to fall back and make a stretch run. I’m not sure if that’s a great thing for the Derby because I think it’s the shortest of the three triple crown races. Either way that’s my pick for the win. Curlin should place despite being at the number 2 post. Nobiz Like Shobiz looks like another great pick for a potential win. Street Sense, Circular Quay, Hard Spun, and Scat Daddy are also of interest.
Post position has been a huge determinant in the past as the the horses in posts 1-10 have done overwhelmingly better in history. BUT, over the last 11 years only 6 have come from posts 1-10, none from the 2-spot (Curlin), and 5 from the 15 and 16 positions… hmm. This makes Tiago not that bad of a pick. My final 4 tally: Tiago for the win, Nobiz LIke Shobiz, Street Sense, and Curlin with Circular Quay possibly displacing one of those 4 because I just can’t rule him out.
Moving this topic more into the realm of sports marketing, I figured I’d discuss something of more interest and related to it. I was pleasantly surprised when I logged onto the Kentucky Derby website. The website has done a complete 180 and made it even more user friendly and also acclimated itself to the whole idea of Web 2.0, social networking and marketing. 
Their website is really one of the best sports related websites there is on the net right now in terms of up to date content, being user friendly, and embracing Web 2.0 in the context of social networking and marketing. The layout is very easy on the eyes, not cluttered with promotional messages, and has a variety of characteristics and changes from last year. I noticed that they implemented blogs by the experts and correspondents which allows the fans to interact and share their opinions. The website has also added such social tagging and bookmarking features as Digg-it and del.icio.us. You can also subscribe to various RSS feeds.
The website has an unlimited amount of resources and additional browse-a-your-own-pace content. You can view the history, statistics, trends, and any other bit of information you can conjure as relevant in researching for the upcoming races. There are also videos, photos, and other bits of content making this a pretty cool site all around. Definitely a very positive step in the right direction for the Kentucky Derby management in embracing Web 2.0.
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